AUG · ISSUE 33 · August 13, 2026
EVENT · BINARYThe print that decides the session in five minutes
July CPI lands at 08:30 ET. The market arrives at a record with the VIX at 15.5: complacency right before a binary print.
S&P 500
7,753
at all-time high
VIX
15.5
complacency
CORE m/m
+0.22%
expected consensus
THE NUMBER
+0.22%
↑ consensus for monthly core inflation
The risk is asymmetric: oil rose nearly 20% in July and that pass-through to prices hasn't shown up yet. A hot print revives the rate-hike story; a cool one relieves the long end of the curve.
NUMBER
ZOOM IN+0.22%
+0.22%
core m/m consensus · 2.5% year over year
It looks tiny, but the market stakes weeks of trend on the tenth that separates a cool print from a hot one.
A tenth of a point above or below 0.25% monthly completely changes the market's expected reaction.
- m/m
- — Month-over-month change, the most recent pace of inflation.
- YEAR OVER YEAR
- — Change versus the same month a year ago.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYThe market prices the surprise, not the print
“Consensus is already priced. What the market trades in the first second is the surprise: how far the actual print lands from what everyone expected.”
Consensus is already in the price. What moves the session is the gap between the actual number and expectations.
- PRICED IN
- — Already reflected in the price before the data is released.
- SURPRISE
- — The gap between the actual print and the prior consensus.
TREND
8 MONTHSCore inflation, pressed near the target
The trend is cooling, but July's oil pass-through is the wildcard that could break the line.
Eight months of core year-over-year. It's nearing the 2% target, but oil threatens the final stretch.
- FED TARGET
- — The 2% inflation the Fed pursues over the medium term.
- PASS-THROUGH
- — The feed of a cost (oil) into the final price you pay.
TWO PATHS
COOL vs HOTWhat happens if the print surprises either way
COOL PRINT
Core below 0.20%
- Relieves the long end: rates ease off.
- Lowers the odds of a September rate hike.
- Stocks breathe and the 7,700 support firms up.
HOT PRINT
Core at 0.25-0.30% or more
- Revives the hike story and pushes the 30Y above 5%.
- JPM scenario of an S&P 500 drop between 0.5% and 2.5%.
- Losing 7,700 would open a technical gap down to 7,500.
The same report, two opposite movies depending on where the tenth lands.
- LONG END
- — The longer-maturity bonds (10 and 30 year), sensitive to inflation.
- SUPPORT
- — A price level where a decline tends to stall.
SCENARIOS
APPROX ODDSThe market's probability map
The central case is benign, but the bad tail weighs more than the good one: that's why the market arrives nervous despite the record.
Approximate split of scenarios and their estimated S&P 500 reaction. They sum to 100 after normalizing.
- TAIL
- — The extreme scenarios, unlikely but high impact.
- NORMALIZE
- — Adjust the probabilities so they add up to 100%.
TODAY'S AGENDA
TODAY AND TOMORROWThe sequence that shapes the session
| WED 12 AUG · 08:30 ET | JULY CPI | High | The starting gun. The reaction shows in futures within a second. |
| WED 12 AUG · 09:30 ET | WALL STREET OPEN | Medium | The cash session confirms or fades what futures anticipated. |
| WED 12 AUG · 16:00 ET | AI CAPEX EARNINGS | Medium | After the close: a profitability test for AI spending. |
| THU 13 AUG · 08:30 ET | JULY PPI | High | A second inflation print in 24h: confirms or denies the CPI. |
From the print to the open to earnings: this is how the key hours of the day chain together.
- FUTURES
- — Contracts that price the index before the market opens.
- AMC
- — After Market Close: earnings released after the US close.
WRAP
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- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index, the data that moves the market most.
- SURPRISE
- — The gap between the actual print and consensus.