JUL · ISSUE 31 · July 29, 2026
FED · TODAYThe Fed decides today, and a hike is on the table
A new chair's debut, with no projections chart. Uncertainty is at a six-year high.
HIKE PROBABILITY
35-40%
not fully priced in
IMPLIED MOVE
±0.8%
what options are pricing
DOT PLOT
none
no projections this meeting
THE NUMBER
35-40%
↑ a real chance of a hike, not just theoretical
The consensus is to hold with a hawkish tone, but a hike is a live possibility. A chair who telegraphs nothing plus an independent board equals maximum uncertainty.
DATA
ZOOM IN±0.8%
±0.8%
implied move for the S&P 500 today
The market has already priced its fear. What it doesn't know is which way it breaks.
Options are pricing the S&P to move 0.8% in either direction after the decision. It's the market's bet on its own nerves.
- IMPLIED
- — The move the market expects, read from options prices.
- OPTIONS
- — Contracts that bet on an asset rising or falling.
CONTEXT
AUTHORITYThe one house that puts numbers on it
“The risk is asymmetric: if they hike, stocks fall far more than they'd rise on a dovish hold.”
JPMorgan is the house that quantifies the risk: it assigns probabilities to each scenario instead of staying vague.
- ASYMMETRIC
- — When the downside risk is bigger than the upside potential.
- DOVISH
- — A soft tone: signals lower rates or pauses (the opposite of hawkish).
SCENARIOS
WHAT STOCKS RISKHow the S&P reacts to what the Fed does
From +1% to -4% on a single sentence. The base case is a hawkish hold, but the tail is dangerous.
The same statement has four possible endings, and the gap between best and worst is huge: that's why today is binary.
- BP
- — Basis points. 1 bp = 0.01%. 25 bp = 0.25%.
- BASE CASE
- — The most likely scenario per market consensus.
THREE PATHS
TO GET ITThree outcomes, three different markets
HOLD, HAWKISH TONE
The base case (50%). Rates unchanged but a warning that cuts won't come soon. A muted reaction: flat to slightly negative.
SURPRISE HIKE
The risk (35-40% for the market). A 25bp hike that punishes tech and chips. The S&P could fall 1.5-2% and the Nasdaq 3-4%.
DOVISH HOLD
The relief (28%). Rates held and the message softened. Stocks exhale and rise 0.5-1%.
It's not just hike or hold: tone matters. Stocks react more to what they say than to what they do.
- HAWKISH
- — A hard tone: signals rates higher for longer.
- NASDAQ
- — The index of the big US tech names.
PROBABILITIES
HOW THE MARKET SEES ITWhat the market prices going into the meeting
A combined 40% bets on some hike. It's a coin loaded heavily toward the scare.
These probabilities aren't certainties: they're a snapshot of the market's bets right before the decision.
- PRICE IN
- — When the market has already built an expected outcome into the price.
- TAIL
- — An extreme, unlikely scenario with a big impact if it happens.
CALENDAR
48 KEY HOURSThe binaries that resolve in 48 hours
| WED JUL 29 · 14:00 ET | FOMC DECISION | High | No dot plot. A hike is a live 35-40% risk. |
| WED JUL 29 · 14:30 ET | PRESS CONFERENCE | High | The new chair's debut. Tone will matter more than the number. |
| WED JUL 29 · AFTER CLOSE | META + MSFT (AMC) | High | Reporting on the exact axis the market punishes: AI capex. |
| THU JUL 30 · AFTER CLOSE | AMZN + AAPL (AMC) | High | The second wave of giants. It closes earnings week. |
| FRI JUL 31 · 08:30 ET | CORE PCE | Medium | The inflation the Fed watches. It sets the pace for months ahead. |
It's not just the Fed: today and tomorrow the world's biggest tech names report. Three known unknowns clear almost at once.
- AMC
- — After Market Close: earnings released after the US close (16:00 ET).
- CORE PCE
- — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, stripping food and energy.
- CAPEX
- — Capital spending: here, the money poured into AI data centers.
WRAP-UP
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- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets US interest rates.
- BP
- — Basis points. 1 bp = 0.01%.