AUG · ISSUE 34 · August 17, 2026
FED · ALERTWednesday the Fed shows its hand
The last FOMC minutes arrive with three dissenters inside. The question is no longer when rates fall.
FOMC MINUTES
WED
2:00pm ET · key event
DISSENTERS
3
at the last meeting
2026 CUTS
~0
now priced by the market
THE NUMBER
3
↑ dissenters at the Fed's last meeting
A split committee is an unpredictable one. Wednesday's minutes reveal how many members pushed to tighten, and how hard, just as the long bond already prices higher for longer.
DATA
ZOOM IN0 cuts
~0
▼ from ~3 cuts expected in January
The market has erased almost every cut this year. If the minutes read hawkish, it could even start flirting with a hike.
In January the market expected several cuts in 2026. Today it prices almost none.
- CUT
- — A drop in the Fed's rate. It lowers borrowing costs and usually lifts stocks.
- BP
- — Basis points. 1 bp = 0.01%. A typical cut is 25 bp.
CONTEXT
TAKEWhat's expected is already in the price
“The market doesn't react to what the Fed says, but to the gap between what it says and what you already expected it to say.”
The hawkish consensus is already in the bond. What moves the market is the SURPRISE relative to that consensus.
- HAWKISH
- — A tight stance: favouring higher rates to slow inflation.
- DOVISH
- — An easy stance: favouring lower rates to support employment.
- PRICED IN
- — Information the market has already built into today's price.
TREND
EXPECTATIONSHow the 2026 rate cuts evaporated
Market-implied expectations. In eight months they've gone from three cuts to almost none.
Cuts the market priced for 2026, month by month. The line falls because inflation isn't cooling enough.
- IMPLIED
- — A figure inferred from futures prices, not announced by the Fed.
- RESTRICTIVE
- — A rate level that slows the economy rather than stimulating it.
SCENARIOS
TWO PATHSWhat happens depending on the tone
IF HAWKISH
The scenario stocks fear
- The long bond rises: the 30Y could test 5.3%.
- Tech multiples compress on a higher discount rate.
- The dollar strengthens and pressures gold and emerging markets.
IF DOVISH
The relief the rally wants
- Yields ease and stocks breathe, growth most of all.
- Year-end cuts come back onto the table.
- The VIX, already low, stays asleep a little longer.
On Wednesday the market reads the tone. Here are the two outcomes and who they favour.
- MULTIPLE
- — How much the market pays per dollar of earnings (e.g. the P/E).
- GROWTH
- — Companies valued on future earnings: tech, semis, biotech.
MARKET
WHAT'S PRICEDWhat the market expects from the Fed through year-end
The hike option is small, but it's no longer zero. That's the year's regime change.
Rough split of what futures price for the rest of 2026.
- FUTURES
- — Contracts that reflect the market's bet on future rates.
- TAIL
- — A low-probability but high-impact scenario if it materialises.
CALENDAR
KEY WEEKFive dates that shape the week
| TUE AUG 18 · pre-mkt | HOME DEPOT EARNINGS | Medium | First read on consumer and housing after July's weak retail print. |
| WED AUG 19 · 2:00pm ET | FOMC MINUTES | High | The main event. Reveals how many members wanted to tighten. |
| WED AUG 19 · pre-mkt | TARGET + LOWE'S | Medium | Discretionary and home improvement: middle-class spending. |
| THU AUG 20 · pre-mkt | WALMART EARNINGS | High | The clearest barometer of the core US consumer. |
| FRI AUG 21 · 9:45am ET | FLASH PMI + OPTIONS EXPIRY | Medium | Forward-looking activity plus third-Friday expiry. |
A light macro calendar, but dense with consumer earnings and the voice of the Fed.
- PMI
- — Purchasing Managers' Index: a forward read on economic activity.
- EXPIRY
- — The day options expire; it tends to lift volume and swings.
WRAP
FOLLOWDid this make the Fed week clearer?
If you now see why Wednesday matters more than any data point, share it. Tomorrow, another dose.
One carousel a day, Monday to Friday. Tomorrow another story, another concept.
FOLLOW US ON INSTAGRAM · @ronfy_official
Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets US interest rates.
- MINUTES
- — The detail of the Fed's internal debate, three weeks after the meeting.