AUG · ISSUE 34 · August 21, 2026

CALENDAR · KEY

First the expiry, then Jackson Hole

Two catalysts back to back: tomorrow the expiry pins the index; next week, the new Fed chair's debut.

MONTHLY OPEX

tomorrow

pinning 7,695-7,775

FED DEBUT

Aug 28

new chair

EXPECT NEUTRAL

53%

BofA survey

THE EVENT

AUG 28

→ the new Fed chair's first speech

The Jackson Hole symposium gathers the world's central bankers. This year it arrives with the debut of the new Fed chair, whose first remarks will set the tone for the months ahead.

NUMBER

ZOOM IN

53%

31% expect a hawkish tone · 7% dovish

The market has already decided what will happen. The biggest moves come when what everyone assumes fails to show up.

More than half of managers expect a neutral tone at Jackson Hole. When the consensus is this clear, any surprise moves the market twice as much.

HAWKISH: — A tough tone: the Fed prioritizes fighting inflation with high rates.
DOVISH: — A soft tone: the Fed leans toward cutting rates or supporting growth.

CONTEXT

The debut matters

“The market doesn't react to what the Fed does, but to the gap between what it does and what it was expected to do.”

Ronfy Analysis · Editorial

A first speech doesn't change policy overnight, but it sets the frame the market uses to read every data point for months.

FRAME: — The narrative the market uses to interpret future decisions.
CONSENSUS: — What most of the market takes for granted will happen.

THE RANGE

SUPPORT AND CEILING

The box where the market awaits the Fed

AUG 1AUG 8AUG 15TODAY

As long as 7,695 holds, the trend stays alive. Losing it would open a gap toward 7,450-7,300.

The index trades pinned between key support (7,695) and triple resistance (7,775). The expiry tends to keep it there until the big event.

SUPPORT: — A level where demand tends to appear and halt a decline.
RESISTANCE: — A level where supply tends to appear and cap a rise.

TWO SCENARIOS

HAWK vs DOVE

What each tone would do to the market

HAWKISH TONE

Feared by 31%

The 30-year yield tightens back above 5.30%.
Stocks pull back: high rates punish tech.
The dollar strengthens and gold loses momentum.

DOVISH TONE

Expected by just 7%

The long end of the curve eases and stocks breathe.
It reinforces the liquidity floor the Treasury already set.
Gold and bitcoin extend gains on more liquidity.

With the consensus at neutral, the two extremes are what move things. Here's how the market would react to each.

30Y: — The 30-year US Treasury bond, the long-end benchmark.
PULLBACK: — An orderly price drop after a rise, without breaking the trend.

SURVEY

WHAT THEY EXPECT

What managers expect from Jackson Hole

NEUTRALNo surprises, sticks to the script53%

HAWKISHMore pressure on rates31%

NO VIEWNot taking a side9%

DOVISHRelief for stocks7%

With 53% expecting calm, the asymmetric risk sits with the 31% who fear a hawkish tone.

The split of expectations from BofA's survey. The consensus is overwhelmingly neutral.

ASYMMETRIC RISK: — When one direction has more room to run than the other.
THE SCRIPT: — The scenario the market already takes for granted.

CALENDAR

NEXT 8 DAYS

The events that move markets into Jackson Hole

FRI AUG 21 · US close	MONTHLY OPEX	High	Options expiry. Anchors the index near 7,700-7,775.
FRI AUG 21 · 08:30 ET	JOBLESS CLAIMS / PHILLY FED	Low	Second-tier data. They don't move markets on their own.
THU AUG 27 · all day	JACKSON HOLE OPENS	Medium	Central bankers gather. Anticipation builds.
FRI AUG 28 · TBC	FED CHAIR DEBUT	High	The new chair's first speech. Sets the tone for the months ahead.

From tomorrow's expiry to the Fed chair's debut: eight days with two heavyweight catalysts.

OPEX: — Monthly options expiry, the 3rd Friday of each month.
FOMC: — The committee that sets the Fed's rates; its members speak at Jackson Hole.
IMPACT: — How much an event can move the market: high, medium or low.

WRAP-UP

Ready for the Fed's week?

If the calendar ahead is clear, share it. We'll cover Jackson Hole live.

One carousel a day, Monday to Friday. Next week, the Fed runs the show.

Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET

JACKSON HOLE: — Annual central-bankers' symposium in Wyoming, USA.
OPEX: — Options expiry that pins prices on the 3rd Friday of the month.

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