JUL · ISSUE 29 · July 17, 2026
MACROThe dollar closes in on its 100 floor
The DXY index keeps deflating toward 100 as labor-market signals cool off.
DXY 15 JUL
100.49
-0.27% on the session
JULY HIGH
101.4
earlier this month
KEY FLOOR
100
psychological level
THE NUMBER
100.5
the dollar index, heading for its 100 floor
The DXY closed at 100.49, pulling away from its early-July highs (~101.4). Behind it: softer labor signals and steadier yields make the dollar less attractive.
THE DATA
ZOOM IN100.5
100.5
▼ from 101.4 earlier in July
A weaker dollar makes your trips abroad cheaper, but it also lifts the price of nearly everything paid for in dollars.
The dollar falls because the market sees a less aggressive Fed: if rates don't rise further, the dollar yields less versus other currencies.
- REAL RATES
- — The interest left after subtracting inflation: it drives the dollar.
- BASKET
- — The set of currencies the dollar is measured against.
TAKEAWAY
EDITORIALThe number almost nobody watches
“You don't need to buy dollars for the dollar to move your portfolio. It prices almost everything you own outside the US.”
You don't have to trade currencies for the dollar to set your returns: it prices everything you hold outside the US.
- CURRENCY
- — A country's or region's money (euro, yen, pound).
- EMERGING MARKETS
- — Developing economies, highly sensitive to the dollar's strength.
THE MOVE
6 MONTHSHalf a year of dollar downhill
Near 100, every decimal counts: it's the level the whole market watches at once.
The dollar index has been sliding for months. The closer it gets to 100, the more weight that round level carries.
- ROUND NUMBER
- — A level like 100 that acts as a magnet because everyone watches it.
- DXY
- — The dollar index against a basket of currencies.
HEAD TO HEAD
STRONG vs WEAKWhat changes with a weak dollar
WEAK DOLLAR
A tailwind from abroad
- Commodities rise: they're priced in dollars and now cost less for everyone else.
- Emerging markets breathe easier: their dollar debt weighs less.
- US multinationals earn more when converting their overseas sales.
STRONG DOLLAR
A magnet that pulls in capital
- Importing gets cheap for the US, but it pressures commodities.
- Emerging markets suffer: their dollar debt gets more expensive.
- Global capital rushes into the dollar and drains other markets.
The same dollar, two opposite worlds depending on whether it rises or falls. Each regime has winners and losers.
- COMMODITIES
- — Oil, gold, copper: priced in dollars on the global market.
- MULTINATIONAL
- — A company with sales in many countries and currencies.
COMPOSITION
MEASURED AGAINSTWhat's inside the dollar index
When you hear 'the dollar is up', it almost always means 'the dollar is up against the euro'.
The DXY doesn't measure the dollar against everything: it measures it against six currencies, and the euro is more than half.
- WEIGHTING
- — How much each currency counts inside the index.
- SAFE HAVEN
- — An asset or currency investors seek in fearful moments.
CALENDAR
DAYS AHEADFour events that move the dollar
| THU 16 JUL · 08:30 ET | RETAIL SALES (JUNE) | High | Strong spending supports the dollar; weak accelerates its slide toward 100. |
| THU 16 JUL · 08:30 ET | JOBLESS CLAIMS | Medium | Weekly labor signal. A soft job market pressures the dollar lower. |
| FRI 17 JUL · 10:00 ET | MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (PRELIM) | Medium | Consumer mood. Sets the pulse of summer spending. |
| WED 29 JUL · 14:00 ET | FED RATE DECISION | High | The big event of the month. The rate path defines the dollar's strength. |
With the dollar pinned near 100, these releases can push it below or send it back up.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets US interest rates.
- RETAIL SALES
- — How much consumers spend: a key gauge of the economy.
WRAP-UP
FOLLOW USDo you see the dollar differently now?
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- DXY
- — The dollar index against a basket of six currencies.
- FLOOR
- — A psychological level the market watches: here, 100.