OCT · ISSUE 40 · October 3, 2026

WEEKLY CLOSE

The week stocks voted, next week decides

Five sessions to price in a Fed turn. The long bond still refuses to sign off.

OCT HIKE (ODDS)

14%

down from 70% Monday

US 10Y FRI CLOSE

5.25%

higher than pre-data

VIX

15.7

sub-20 all week

THE WEEK

70% -> 14%

odds of an October hike

A soft jobs report (+29k vs ~85k expected) crushed the odds of an October hike from 70% to 14% in hours. Stocks closed green, but the 10-year finished above 5.25%, higher than before the data landed.

WEEK IN ONE NUMBER

ZOOM IN

14%

▼ down from 70% on Monday

It is like going from near-certain to nearly ruled out in a single week. That is how fast the market reprices when the data surprises it.

Monday the market saw a 70% chance of an October hike. By Friday, 14%. That is what one jobs report moved.

REPRICE: — To adjust an asset's price as new information arrives.
PAYROLLS: — The monthly US non-farm employment report.

THE READ

THE NUANCE

Two markets, two stories

“Stocks can price in a cut within hours. But only the bond, with real demand at every auction, confirms whether the market truly believes it.”

Ronfy Analysis · Market read

When stocks and bonds tell opposite stories, whoever ends up right sets the next move.

AUCTION: — A Treasury debt sale where real demand for bonds is measured.
YIELD: — The annual return a bond pays at its current price.

THE WEEK

5 SESSIONS

The collapse in hike odds

MONTUEWEDTHUFRI

From near-certain to nearly ruled out in five sessions. The market changed its mind on the Fed in one week.

The odds of an October hike across the week. Friday's jobs report was the knockout blow.

ODDS: — The implied probability of an event from the futures market.
FOMC: — The Fed committee that sets interest rates.

NEXT WEEK

3 THINGS TO WATCH

Three things to watch next week

THE FED MINUTES
Wednesday brings the minutes of the last meeting. They reveal how many members still worry about inflation over jobs, and that sets the tone for the next move in rates.
TWO TREASURY AUCTIONS
The 10-year on Wednesday and the 30-year on Thursday. They are the direct test of whether there is real demand for long-dated debt. If it weakens, yields rise and pressure stocks.
THE COUNTDOWN TO CPI
The October 14 inflation print is the pivot the market has circled. Everything this week is the warm-up before that date.

Stocks already voted. These three events start to show whether the vote holds.

MINUTES: — A detailed record of the Fed meeting, released three weeks later.
CPI: — Consumer Price Index. It measures inflation.
LONG-DATED: — Bonds with long maturities (10 and 30 years), the most rate-sensitive.

WHAT IS PRICED

OCTOBER FED

What the market expects from the Fed this month

HOLD RATESBase case after the soft jobs print86%

HIKE RATESDown from 70% at the start of the week14%

A week ago it was a coin flip. Today the market nearly rules out a hike. The October 14 CPI could flip it again.

After the jobs data, the market treats an October hold as the base case. This is what it prices today.

BASE CASE: — The outcome the market sees as most likely.
HOLD: — Leaving interest rates unchanged at the meeting.

CALENDAR

MON TO FRI

Five macro events that move the week

MON OCT 5 · 10:00 ET	ISM SERVICES	Medium	First read on the services economy after the soft jobs print.
WED OCT 7 · 13:01 ET	10Y AUCTION	Medium	Demand test for the bond that refused to budge this week.
WED OCT 7 · 14:00 ET	FOMC MINUTES	High	How many members stay hawkish sets the next move in the 10Y.
THU OCT 8 · 13:01 ET	30Y AUCTION	High	The long-end exam: if demand slips, the yield climbs.
FRI OCT 9 · 10:00 ET	MICHIGAN SENTIMENT	Medium	Inflation expectations and the consumer mood.

After a week when bonds rejected the turn, these five events test the real appetite for debt and the Fed's tone.

FOMC: — Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the Fed's rates.
ISM: — An economic activity index built from business surveys.
AUCTION: — A debt sale where real demand for bonds is measured.

Did this frame your week?

If this look at the week's close helps you reach Monday with a clear head, share it.

The daily briefing is back Monday. One dose a day so you never miss what moves the market.

Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET

10Y: — The US Treasury 10-year note.
CPI: — Consumer Price Index. The key print on October 14.

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