SEP · ISSUE 37 · September 10, 2026
MACRO · ALERT48 hours that decide the Fed's next move
Two inflation prints in under 27 hours. Tomorrow's is the one that rules.
AUGUST PPI
TODAY
08:30 ET
AUGUST CPI
TOMORROW
the hike's referee
IMPLIED MOVE TODAY
0.55%
options are calm
THE KEY PRINT
CPI
→ decides the Fed meeting on Sep 16-17
August CPI drops tomorrow, Friday, at 08:30 ET. It is the last inflation read before the Fed sets rates. A core reading below 0.20% month-on-month is what the market needs to rule a hike out.
ZOOM IN
THE NUMBER0.55%
0.55%
implied move for today's session
When the market prices in this little movement, it is almost always holding its breath ahead of a bigger data point.
That is the move options price for TODAY. Tiny: the market knows the fire is tomorrow.
- IMPLIED MOVE
- — How much the market expects to move, read from options prices.
- BINARY
- — An event with two opposite outcomes and a sharp jump between them.
CONTEXT
TAKEThe print that decides the cycle
“This is not just another inflation print: it decides whether the Fed hikes for the first time in this stretch of the cycle.”
Hawkish Fed signals and a split committee keep a hike alive. CPI is what tips the scale.
- HAWKISH
- — A tough stance: prioritizes fighting inflation even if it cools growth.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets US interest rates.
EXPECTED MOVE
BY EVENTWhere the ammunition is saved
Today's PPI move is real (0.55%). The CPI and Fed figures are typical readings for such days (*illustrative).
Options barely move today, but price in far more for tomorrow's CPI and next week's Fed.
- PPI
- — Producer prices. Out today at 08:30 ET.
- FOMC
- — The Fed meeting on Sep 16-17, with a rate decision.
THE TWO PRINTS
PPI vs CPIWhy the second one carries more weight
PPI (TODAY)
The early warning
- Measures prices businesses pay, not you.
- Leads CPI by several weeks.
- Consensus: +0.4% month-on-month headline.
CPI (TOMORROW)
The decider
- Measures prices you pay in real life.
- Direct referee of the Fed meeting.
- A core below 0.20% would avoid the hike.
PPI is the raw material of inflation; CPI is what the Fed actually watches to set rates.
- HEADLINE
- — Top-line inflation: includes everything, food and energy too.
- MONTH-ON-MONTH
- — Change from one month to the next (MoM), not year-over-year.
TO GRASP IT
THE BASKETWhat sits inside CPI
Approximate weights of the US basket. Housing alone is worth a third of the number.
Not every price counts the same. Housing dominates the basket, which is why the market watches it so closely.
- BASKET
- — The set of goods and services whose prices are tracked to measure inflation.
- WEIGHTING
- — How much each category counts within the total index.
CALENDAR
48-72 HOURSThe window that decides September
| THU SEP 10 · 08:30 ET | AUGUST PPI (US) | High | First test. An early warning, but it does not decide on its own. |
| THU SEP 10 · - | ECB RATE DECISION | Medium | Europe with a hike priced in. Watch the tone of the press conference. |
| FRI SEP 11 · 08:30 ET | AUGUST CPI (US) | High | The referee. Core below 0.20% avoids the hike; above reinforces it. |
| TUE SEP 15 · - | PRE-FOMC WINDOW | Medium | Fed blackout. The market positions ahead of the meeting. |
| THU SEP 17 · 14:00 ET | FED RATE DECISION | High | The payoff. A 25bp hike is on the table after the inflation print. |
Five back-to-back events: from today's PPI to next week's rate decision.
- ECB
- — European Central Bank. Sets eurozone rates.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that decides US rates.
- ET
- — US Eastern Time. Wall Street opens at 09:30 ET.
CLOSE
FOLLOW USNow you know why the market is so quiet today
If you get why it is saving everything for tomorrow, you already read the tape better than most.
One carousel a day, Mon-Fri. Tomorrow: how it reacted to CPI.
FOLLOW US ON INSTAGRAM · @ronfy_official
Daily briefing · Mon-Fri 16:00 ET
- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index. The inflation you actually pay.
- HIKE
- — An interest-rate increase by the central bank.