AUG · ISSUE 35 · August 25, 2026
FEDThe new Fed chair debuts at Jackson Hole
His first speech lands 19 days before the September meeting. Every word counts.
SEP HIKE
~1 in 3
what the market prices
UNTIL FOMC
19 days
after the speech
INFLATION
~3.4%
still above 2%
THE NUMBER
19 days
→ what separates the speech from the rate decision
The Jackson Hole symposium gathers central bankers every year. This Friday the new Fed chair debuts, and his tone sets the playing field for the September meeting.
THE NUMBER
ZOOM IN≈33%
≈33%
odds of a September rate hike
It isn't a small figure: it means the market has NOT ruled out further tightening. The Fed still has its finger near the trigger.
The market sees one-in-three odds of a September hike. Friday's speech can raise or lower that number in minutes.
- TIGHTENING
- — Raising rates or pulling stimulus to slow inflation.
- IMPLIED ODDS
- — What rate futures price in for the next decision.
QUOTE
CONTEXTStructure, not near-term guidance
“When a central banker says he won't give signals, that is already a signal: don't expect to be led by the hand into September.”
The new chair has signaled he'll address long-term questions and that the Fed will act independently of what the market prices.
- STRUCTURAL
- — Deeper, long-term themes rather than the next rate decision.
- INDEPENDENCE
- — The Fed decides without bending to what the market demands.
TREND
6 MONTHSThe long bond, at a near two-decade high
The August 18 peak. It eases from there, but 5% is still the line between calm and a scare.
The 30Y touched its highest level in 19 years and eases back a little. Above 5%, we're still in stress territory.
- 30Y
- — The US Treasury 30-year bond.
- REGIME LINE
- — A level that separates a normal market from a stressed one.
SCENARIOS
THREE TONESHow the speech could sound
HAWKISH
Inflation first
- Insists 3% still isn't good enough.
- Raises the odds of a September hike.
- Yields climb, pressure on stocks.
STRUCTURAL
No tactical signal
- Talks long term, avoids committing.
- Leaves the decision open to the data.
- Volatility: the market is left without guidance.
DOVISH
Door to a pause
- Acknowledges the economy is cooling.
- Lowers the odds of a hike.
- Relief in bonds and stocks.
The market will read every nuance. Here are the three possible tones and their immediate effect.
- HAWKISH
- — A tough tone: prioritizes fighting inflation even if it slows growth.
- DOVISH
- — A soft tone: prioritizes growth and employment.
MARKET
WHAT'S PRICEDWhat the market expects for September
Two in three bet the Fed holds. But that third fearing a hike is what keeps bonds tense.
Ahead of the speech, this is how the market splits its bets for next month's meeting.
- BASE CASE
- — The outcome the market considers most likely.
- NO CHANGE
- — The Fed keeping rates where they are.
CALENDAR
PODIUM TO FOMCFrom the speech to the decision
| THU AUG 27 · all day | SYMPOSIUM OPENS | Low | Panels begin. This year's theme: financial innovation and payments. |
| FRI AUG 28 · ~10:00 ET | FED CHAIR SPEECH | High | The debut. His tone defines the field into September. |
| FRI AUG 28 · 10:00 ET | MICHIGAN SENTIMENT | Low | Consumer inflation expectations, a supporting print. |
| FRI AUG 28 · afternoon | ACADEMIC PANELS | Low | Technical debates; rarely move the market, sometimes leak ideas. |
| WED SEP 16 · 14:00 ET | RATE DECISION (FOMC) | High | The real outcome. 19 days after the Jackson Hole speech. |
Friday's speech is the appetizer. The rate decision comes three weeks later.
- SYMPOSIUM
- — The annual gathering of central bankers and academics at Jackson Hole.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets interest rates.
- BP
- — Basis points. 1 bp = 0.01%. A typical hike is 25 bp.
WRAP
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- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that decides rates.
- JACKSON HOLE
- — Annual central-banking symposium in Wyoming.