OCT · ISSUE 42 · October 13, 2026
MACRO · ALERTThe print that decides the month: CPI tomorrow
The market is at highs and volatility at lows, right before the data that sets the Fed's pace.
CONSENSUS YOY
3.7%
up from 3.4% prior
DEC HIKE ODDS
~75%
per betting markets
VIX
15.2
calm before the data
THE NUMBER
3.7%
the year-over-year inflation consensus expects
That would be an acceleration from the 3.4% prior, though core monthly inflation is easing toward +0.2%. The market is betting on no surprise, which is exactly why a surprise would hurt.
NUMBER
ZOOM IN3.7%
3.7%
▲ up from 3.4% prior (year over year)
It's not the inflation of three years ago. But it's still nearly double the Fed's 2% target. That's why the print carries so much weight.
A 3.7% yearly print would keep the Fed hawkish. The market already prices ~75% odds of a December hike.
- FED TARGET
- — The Fed wants inflation at 2% over the medium term.
- CONSENSUS
- — The average of what analysts expect before the data.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYMore tightening may be needed
“Bringing inflation back to target may require policy that is somewhat more restrictive than the market expects.”
A Fed voice has already flagged it ahead of the data: the inflation fight isn't won.
- RESTRICTIVE
- — A high-rate policy that cools the economy to bring prices down.
- FED
- — Federal Reserve: the central bank of the United States.
TREND
YEAR OVER YEARInflation that's climbing again
The trend points up. The 3.7% consensus (SEP*) is an estimate; the real number lands tomorrow.
The yearly path toward the 3.7% consensus expects. The final leg is an estimate, not a confirmed print.
- SEP*
- — The asterisk marks the consensus estimate, not yet released.
- TREND
- — The underlying direction of a series, beyond monthly noise.
SCENARIOS
THREE PATHSWhat can happen tomorrow at 8:30am ET
HOT PRINT (>3.7%)
Fears rise that the Fed must tighten further. Yields up, stocks down, dollar strong. The worst case for the highs.
IN LINE (~3.7%)
Mild relief: expectations confirmed and the market breathes. Watch core, the number the Fed really tracks.
COOL PRINT (<3.5%)
Relief rally: rate pressure eases and risk appetite returns. But consensus sees this as unlikely.
The market is positioned for the central case. The surprises, up or down, are what move prices.
- POSITIONED
- — How the market has its money placed ahead of the event.
- RALLY
- — A fast, broad rise in prices.
BETS
WHAT'S PRICEDWhat the market bets for December
Today's majority scenario
The minority that sees a pause
These are bets, not certainties. A cool CPI tomorrow could flip this split in minutes.
After CPI, the next question is the Fed. Today betting markets lean clearly toward another December hike.
- BETTING MARKET
- — Platforms that price the probability of a future event.
- RATE HIKE
- — When the Fed makes money more expensive to slow inflation.
WATCHLIST
TO WATCHHow the market arrives at the data
| S&P 500 | 7,807 | → -0.1% | Pinned at highs and nearly flat: the market won't commit until it sees the print. |
| VIX | 15.2 | ▲ +2.5% | Fear near lows but ticking up. Little hedging ahead of a binary event. |
| US 10Y | 5.24% | ▼ -4bp | The bond reopens after Columbus Day. 5% is no longer a ceiling; it's a floor. |
| GOLD | 4,185 | ▼ -0.2% | Near a record, slipping as a firm dollar waits on CPI. |
| BRENT | 105.5 | ▼ -1.0% | Lower despite geopolitical tension: crude isn't pricing a fresh shock. |
Five gauges ahead of CPI. This is how tense, or calm, each front is right before the number.
- US 10Y
- — The 10-year Treasury yield, the world's benchmark rate.
- BP
- — Basis points. 1 bp = 0.01%. 4 bp = 0.04%.
WRAP
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- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index: the inflation gauge that moves the Fed.
- VIX
- — The fear index: it measures the market's expected volatility.