OCT · ISSUE 41 · October 5, 2026
FED · SHIFTOn Wednesday the Fed releases minutes from another era
Friday's jobs print erased the fear of a hike. September's minutes don't know that yet.
HIKE ODDS
14%
down from 70% on Monday
SEPT JOBS
+29k
vs ~85k expected
US 10Y
5.25%
easing from 24-yr highs
THE NUMBER
70% to 14%
the collapse in hike odds in one session
Just 29,000 new jobs took the rate hike the market feared off the table. On Wednesday Oct 7 the September meeting minutes land, written before that print existed.
DATA
ZOOM IN14%
14%
▼ from 70% in five sessions
This is the market changing its mind in real time: from a Fed that tightens to a Fed that waits.
Early in the week the market put a 70% chance on a rate hike. By Friday it was down to 14%.
- CME FEDWATCH
- — A tool that estimates the odds of rate moves from futures pricing.
- DOVISH
- — A central-bank stance leaning toward lower rates or a pause.
QUOTE
AUTHORITYWeak jobs buy the Fed some time
“Treasury yields fell after the release, as this takes the pressure off the Fed to act aggressively.”
When hiring cools, the Fed is in no rush to hike. Yields take the relief and run.
- YIELD
- — A bond's annual return.
- RESTRICTIVE
- — A rate level meant to slow the economy and inflation.
- HAWKISH
- — A central-bank stance leaning toward higher rates.
TREND
5 SESSIONSThe collapse in hike bets
One jobs number flipped the entire rate outlook in five days.
The odds of a rate hike across the week. Friday's jobs data sank them.
- IMPLIED ODDS
- — What futures pricing says the Fed will do.
- PIVOT
- — A turn in Fed policy: from hiking to pausing or cutting.
TWO SIDES
MINUTES vs MARKETWhat the minutes will say vs what the market believes now
THE MINUTES (SEPTEMBER)
A snapshot frozen three weeks ago
- Written with inflation still sticky and yields at 24-year highs.
- Likely a watchful tone: several members open to further hikes.
- They do not reflect Friday's weak jobs, which did not exist yet.
THE MARKET (TODAY)
What it prices after Friday
- Assumes the hike is off the table: 14% odds.
- Yields easing, the dollar slipping, stocks higher.
- Already looking toward cuts rather than hikes.
The minutes are from September, before the soft jobs print. They may clash with what the market prices today.
- MINUTES
- — A summary of the Fed's debate, released about three weeks later.
- STICKY
- — Inflation that falls more slowly than expected.
SCENARIOS
NEXT MEETINGHow the market splits its bets now
The market has reshuffled its bets: a pause leads, and a hike is now the tail.
Approximate split of what the market prices for the Fed's next meeting after the soft jobs print.
- PAUSE
- — The Fed holds rates unchanged.
- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index, the main inflation gauge.
CALENDAR
THIS WEEKFive dates that rule the rate story
| MON OCT 05 · 10:00 ET | ISM SERVICES | Low | The week's first read on the services economy. |
| WED OCT 07 · 14:00 ET | FOMC MINUTES (SEPT) | High | The key event: the Fed's debate before the soft jobs print. |
| THU OCT 08 · 08:30 ET | JOBLESS CLAIMS | Medium | Confirms or challenges the weak labor trend. |
| FRI OCT 09 · 10:00 ET | MICHIGAN SENTIMENT | Medium | Includes consumer inflation expectations. |
| WED OCT 14 · 08:30 ET | CPI (SEPTEMBER) | High | The real regime pivot, landing next week. |
With a hike all but priced out, these events decide whether the market is right or gets a scare.
- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets rates.
- ISM SERVICES
- — An index of US services-sector activity.
- CPI
- — Consumer Price Index, the inflation gauge.
WRAP
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- FOMC
- — The Fed committee that sets rates.
- MINUTES
- — A summary of the Fed's debate, released about three weeks later.